Fed rate decision · FOMC
Impact High
Wednesday, October 28, 14:00 (New York time) — in 4 days
What it is
The US central bank announces whether it raises, lowers or holds its policy rate — the rate banks lend to each other at, which drags every other rate with it.
Why gold reacts
Gold pays no interest: holding it earns nothing by itself. When the Fed raises rates, leaving money in bonds pays more, and gold becomes less attractive by comparison. When it cuts, that opportunity cost fades and gold becomes competitive again.
Tends to help gold
A rate cut, or simply a signal that one is coming.
Tends to hurt gold
A hike, or language tougher than expected even with no rate change.
What to watch
The statement often matters more than the decision itself: the market prices in the number, but not the tone. The press conference follows 30 minutes later.
US employment report · NFP
Impact High
Friday, November 6, 08:30 (New York time) — in 13 days · data for October 2026
What it is
The number of jobs created last month outside agriculture, and the unemployment rate.
Why gold reacts
Employment tells the Fed what shape the economy is in. An economy hiring strongly gives it room to keep rates high — unfavourable for gold. A weakening labour market raises hopes of cuts — favourable for gold.
Tends to help gold
Job creation well below expectations.
Tends to hurt gold
A labour market stronger than expected.
What to watch
Released at 8:30 a.m. New York time, it is often the most volatile half-hour of the month for gold. Revisions to previous months matter as much as the headline number.
Dates taken from the official calendars of the Federal Reserve and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Times are New York time.
Knowing when is half the work
MacroGold tracks real rates, the dollar and flows continuously, and publishes a full analysis every Sunday.
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